Draw No Bet and Double Chance are both designed to deal with the same problem: the draw. In football, roughly a quarter of matches in many major leagues end level, and that third outcome turns many otherwise sound predictions into losing bets.

The two markets solve it in opposite ways. Double Chance turns the draw into a winning result. Draw No Bet turns it into a refund. That one difference changes the price, the risk and the situations where each market makes sense.

This guide explains how Draw No Bet works, how its odds are built from the standard match result market, how it compares with Double Chance in real numbers and how to decide which one offers better value. If you are new to these markets, our guides to what 1X2 means and double chance betting provide the background for everything below.

 

How Draw No Bet Works

Draw No Bet removes the draw from the outcome. You back one team, and the bet is settled like this:

• Your team wins: the bet wins at the quoted odds.
• Draw: your stake is returned.
• Your team loses: the bet loses.

It is identical to the 0 line in Asian handicap betting, sometimes called “level ball”, which is explained in our guide to Asian handicap lines. Like most full-time markets, it is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, without extra time or penalties.

 

Draw No Bet vs Double Chance: The Settlement Difference

The clearest way to compare the markets is to look at what happens in each result. The example below backs the home team.

 
All three bets win if the home side wins and lose if the away side wins. The only difference is how the draw is treated: a loss, a refund or a win. That is why their odds line up in a predictable order. The straight win pays most, Draw No Bet pays less, and Double Chance pays least.

 

How Draw No Bet Odds Are Built

Draw No Bet odds are not set in isolation. They are mathematically linked to the 1X2 market. You can calculate the equivalent price from any set of match result odds:

Draw No Bet odds = win odds x (draw odds – 1) / draw odds

Double Chance odds = win odds x draw odds / (win odds + draw odds)

Take a match priced at 2.10 home, 3.40 draw and 3.70 away.

• Home Draw No Bet: 2.10 x 2.40 / 3.40 = about 1.48
• Double Chance 1X: 2.10 x 3.40 / 5.50 = about 1.30

These are the prices you would effectively get by building the bets yourself from the 1X2 market. If a bookmaker’s quoted Draw No Bet or Double Chance price is lower than these figures, the dedicated market is carrying a bigger margin. If it is higher, the dedicated market offers the better deal.

 

The “Cost of the Draw”

The first formula reveals something useful. Draw No Bet odds are simply the win odds reduced by the implied probability of the draw. When the draw is priced at 3.40, its implied probability is about 29%, so Draw No Bet pays roughly 71% of the straight win price.

The table below shows how the draw price shapes both markets when the win is priced at 2.00.

 
When the market sees a draw as likely, both safety nets become expensive. When the market sees a draw as unlikely, protection is cheap. This is the foundation for choosing between the two markets.

 

When Draw No Bet Beats Double Chance

Both markets are priced from the same probabilities, so neither is automatically better. The decisive factor is how your own view of the draw compares with the market’s.

If you believe a draw is less likely than the market thinks, Draw No Bet is usually the better choice. You are paying for draw protection you do not expect to need, and Draw No Bet charges less for that protection than Double Chance does.

If you believe a draw is more likely than the market thinks, Double Chance is usually the better choice. It pays out on the draw instead of simply returning your stake, so it benefits directly from the outcome you rate higher than the market does.

A worked example makes the logic clear. Suppose a bookmaker offers home Draw No Bet at 1.55 and Double Chance 1X at 1.33.

 
The expected return for Draw No Bet is the chance of a home win multiplied by its odds, plus the chance of a draw (when the stake comes back), minus one. For Double Chance, it is the combined chance of a home win or draw multiplied by its odds, minus one.

In the first scenario, you expect fewer draws, so the extra payout from Draw No Bet on a home win outweighs the refund-only protection. In the second, you expect more draws, so Double Chance gains from turning those draws into winning bets. The same match, at the same prices, can favour either market depending on the draw estimate.

 

Matches Where Draw No Bet Often Fits

Some match profiles tend to suit Draw No Bet more naturally:

• Favourites priced in the 1.70 to 2.20 range. The draw is a real risk, but Double Chance would usually be too short to be attractive.
• Teams that rarely draw. Attacking sides with leaky defences, or teams that commit numbers forward, tend to produce decisive results.
• Matches where both teams need a win. Late-season fixtures in title races or relegation battles can reduce the appeal of a draw for both sides.
• Higher-scoring leagues. More goals usually mean fewer draws, especially goalless ones.

 

Matches Where Double Chance Often Fits

Double Chance tends to work better in a different set of situations:

• Underdogs with strong defensive structure. A disciplined away side that can frustrate a favourite often makes X2 more attractive than an away Draw No Bet.
• Low-scoring matches. When both teams create few chances, the draw becomes a central outcome, not a side risk.
• Derbies and cautious knockout first legs. Teams often prioritise not losing over winning.
• Situations where a draw suits both teams. End-of-season or final-matchday fixtures can make a draw the most comfortable result for both sides.

Many of these situations overlap with the conditions covered in when it makes sense to bet on a draw. If the draw itself looks underpriced, Double Chance is a lower-variance way to express that view.

 

Building Draw No Bet Yourself

If a bookmaker does not offer Draw No Bet, or offers it at a poor price, you can recreate it from the 1X2 market by splitting your stake between the win and the draw.

Using the earlier prices of 2.10 for the home win and 3.40 for the draw, with a total budget of 100:

• Stake on the draw: 100 / 3.40 = about 29.41, so a draw returns exactly 100
• Stake on the home win: the remaining 70.59
• Return if the home side wins: 70.59 x 2.10 = about 148.24

The result is an effective Draw No Bet price of about 1.48, matching the formula. This approach also lets you take the best available odds for the win and the draw from different bookmakers, which can produce a better combined price than any single bookmaker’s Draw No Bet market.

The same comparison should include the Asian handicap 0 line. Because Asian markets often carry lower margins, the 0 line is frequently the best way to get Draw No Bet exposure. Comparing all three versions is a quick and practical habit, and it depends on being able to convert odds accurately, as covered in how to read odds properly.

 

Risk Profile: How the Two Markets Behave Over Time

Draw No Bet and Double Chance produce very different betting experiences, even when their long-term value is similar.

Double Chance wins more often but pays less. Long runs of small wins are common, and a single loss can wipe out several winning bets. Prices below 1.30 leave very little room for error and can hide a lot of margin.

Draw No Bet wins less often but pays more. Refunds smooth out results without adding profit, and losing runs are more noticeable. However, the payout on each win is meaningfully higher.

For bankroll purposes, Double Chance usually has lower variance and Draw No Bet sits between Double Chance and the straight 1X2 bet. Neither is a “safe bet”. Both still lose when the opponent wins.

 

Common Mistakes

• Treating Double Chance as the safer choice by default. Higher win rates do not mean better value. Very short prices often carry the largest hidden margin.
• Ignoring the 1X2 market. Always compare quoted Draw No Bet and Double Chance prices with the versions you can build from 1X2.
• Forgetting the Asian handicap 0 line. It is the same bet as Draw No Bet and often priced better.
• Using Double Chance on heavy favourites. A 1X price of 1.08 risks a lot to win very little and rarely offers value.
• Adding Draw No Bet to accumulators without checking the rules. A refunded leg is usually treated as odds of 1.00, which shrinks the payout but keeps the rest of the bet alive.

 

Choosing the Right Safety Net

Draw No Bet and Double Chance both protect against the draw, but they protect in different ways. Draw No Bet returns your stake when the match ends level. Double Chance turns the draw into a win. The difference in price reflects that difference in protection.

The practical rule is straightforward. When you think the draw is less likely than the market suggests, Draw No Bet usually gives better value. When you think the draw is more likely than the market suggests, Double Chance usually does. In every case, compare the dedicated market with the price you can build from 1X2 and with the Asian handicap 0 line before placing the bet.

Used this way, the two markets stop being “safe options” and become precise tools for expressing a view about one of football’s most important outcomes: the draw.